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气候变化研究进展
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CMIP6 年代际气候预测计划(DCPP)概况与评述
吴波1,辛晓歌2
1中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG),北京 100029;
2中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
Introduction and remark of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) in CMIP6
WU Bo1, XIN Xiao-Ge2
1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
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摘要?年代际气候预测计划(DCPP)是第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的子计划之一,其目标是利用多模式开展气候系统年代际预测、可预测性和变率机制研究。DCPP设计了3组试验,即年代际回报试验、预报试验以及理解年代际变率机制和可预测性的敏感性试验。目前有21个模式拟参与DCPP计划,其中包括5个来自中国的模式。DCPP将推动解决气候系统从年际到年代际尺度预测相关的多项科学问题,评估当前气候预测系统预报技巧,挖掘潜在可预报性,研究长时间尺度气候变率形成机制,提供对科学和社会有用的预测产品。
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关键词:? 年代际气候预测计划(DCPP)? 年代际预测? 气候系统模式? 耦合模式比较计划? ??
Abstract:?Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is one of sub-project of the CMIP6, which focuses on the decadal climate prediction, climate predictability and mechanisms of the climate variability based on coupled general circulation models. The DCPP consists of three components, decadal hindcast experiments, decadal forecast experiments and sensitivity experiments for mechanism and predictability of the decadal climate variability. Twenty-one models will participate in the DCPP, including 5 models from China. The DCPP will make efforts towards solving a great number of important scientific questions about climate predictions on the interannual and interdecadal time scales, assessing predictive skill of current climate prediction systems, revealing potential predictabilities, researching formation mechanisms of long-term climate variability and offering prediction productions valuable for scientific researches and social applications.
Key words:? Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) ?? Decadal climate prediction ?? General circulation model ?? CMIP
收稿日期:? 2019-04-16 ???? 修回日期:? 2019-07-11 ???? ???? 出版日期:? 2019-09-03 ???? 发布日期:? 2019-09-03 ????
基金资助:?国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0604201);国家自然科学基金(41675089)
通讯作者:? 吴波???
引用本文:? ??
吴波 辛晓歌. CMIP6 年代际气候预测计划(DCPP)概况与评述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, .
WU Bo, XIN Xiao-Ge. Introduction and remark of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) in CMIP6. Climate Change Research, 0, (): 0-0.
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http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/
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